It's the trends, baby, just like I said. This is a screenshot of Nate Silver's projections based on state polls reported back today. Those polls aren't pretty for Mitt. Ohio dropped out of the tossup zone and into "lean Obama" territory, along with Colorado and Nevada. TPM's PollTracker has been conservative for the whole election cycle, and even it crossed over this week, putting Obama in winning territory, albeit not by much. Daily Kos' Steve Singiser had even more bad news for Romney: